TexasHoldem-Info.com News: Texas Holdem Poker Odds

Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Texas Holdem Poker Odds - Part 1

When we start off as poker players we learn how the game flows, follow some basic strategies and hope luck is on our side. But this strategy won’t make us rich, so lets take our knowledge one step further and understand the concept of “odds” in poker. By learning how to factor in odds, you will be sure to make much wiser decisions when betting, calling and folding. Thus increasing your chances of hitting those hands, betting the right amounts and playing when the time is right. In the end you will notice that your confidence is higher, your bank roll is bigger and you have become, simply, an overall better poker player.

Unfortunately very few of us were born mathematical geniuses and are not able to make complicated calculations on the spot or without the help of a calculator. And sadly, complicated and difficult calculations are the key to poker odds. Further more, as we know, calculators, pens and pads are not exactly welcome in most poker games (unless playing online of course). So to solve this problem you have three choices. First, go back to school, break out the textbooks and study probabilities until it becomes second nature (not a very plausible solution). Or you can compute a list of every possible outcome of every possible situation and memorize it (but you’re crazy if you actually try). So that leaves one option, you can estimate your odds (using a simple and straightforward formula) and use this estimate as a good guide in making your poker decisions. Although it is just an estimate, overall it is a much more realistic solution.

There are a few areas in a poker game where knowing your odds is going to help you with your strategy. This article is going to focus on the aspect of “outs” and how they play a role in estimating what your odds will be in actually making the hand you are hoping for.

Outs can be defined as the number of cards, still in the deck, that will aide in making or improving your hand. So let’s say for example, that you are holding 7

and a 9

. The flop is 6

, 10

and Q

. So in this case you will be hoping for a straight. In order to make this straight you will need an eight to come up on the turn or the river. Since there are always four 8’s in a deck, your number of outs in this instance is 4. Or what if the flop had been Ad, 6s and 8

. You are now holding an open ended straight draw where if you draw any 5 or any 10 the hand is made. In this case you are said to have 8 outs. For one last example, say you’re pocket cards are 4

and J

. The flop reveals an A

, 9d and Q

. Obviously you are hoping for a flush hand. Since there are 13 clubs in a deck and you can see 4 of them, your number of outs will be 9 (number in deck less the number you can see).

So now that you understand the concept of outs we can explain the simple equation of estimating the odds or probability of hitting one of the outs and making your hand. This equation works best if you use it post flop (before the turn or the river). It’s as simple as this, take your number of outs and multiply it by the number of cards that still need to be drawn (two if the turn and the river are still not revealed and 1 if the river is the only card unseen). Now take that number, double it and you have an estimated percentage of the likelihood of making your hand.

In our first example you had 4 outs, so the chances of making your straight after the flop would be 4 x 2 x 2 = 16. 4 outs times 2 chances of hitting that straight and then doubled gives you an estimated 16% chance of drawing an 8 and making your hand. This estimate is quite accurate as the true odds in this instance would be 16.47%. The next example had 8 outs (four 10’s and four 5’s). So your estimated chance of making the straight would be 32% (true odds = 31.45%). And finally for the flush hand, you had 9 outs times 2 chances of hitting the flush, double it and you get a 36% probability of making your flush either on the turn or on the river (the true odds in this example are 34.97%).

So now that you can see that this calculation is very simple to remember and easy to calculate in your head, you don’t need a calculator or a degree in mathematics. You can use it anytime to quickly figure out what your approximate chances are of actually making that hand. This number can really help you make more intelligent decisions when it’s your turn to act. But don’t forget, this is just an estimate of the probability that you will make your hand. It is not the probability that you will win the round. You may think, well I have a pretty good chance of making this straight, a nice hand, but your opponent may be holding an even better one. So although knowing your odds is very helpful, there are still many other aspects to the game that need to be taken into consideration if you want to be the best player you can be.

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